Smarter spending, better service: Forecast-led CapEX in transport and core networks

Commercial context

CSPs face a difficult equation: demand for bandwidth continues to soar, while investment budgets remain under pressure. Customers expect affordable, high-quality connectivity everywhere. At the same time, energy costs are rising, spectrum is limited, and green targets are tightening. CSPs must expand networks quickly, but avoid overbuilding. Yet most CapEx planning still depends on static KPIs and site-by-site analysis. These methods can’t keep up with the complexity of today’s cloud-native, data-heavy environments.

The ‘AI-ML Smart Network CapEx – Phase II’ Catalyst is designed to deal with this challenge. It provides a planning platform based on AI-powered demand forecasting, optimization algorithms, and TM Forum’s intent-based standards. The result is faster, greener, and more accurate investment decisions that directly improve ROI.

The solution

The Catalyst project team developed a cloud-native Smart CapEx engine that integrates commercial forecasts, network KPIs, and external data sources into a unified planning model. This allows CSPs to forecast street-level traffic demand and align investments accordingly.

Machine learning models convert marketing’s top-down forecasts into granular traffic predictions. These are enriched with external datasets — including mobility data, demographic trends, and 3D urban models. This increases precision and local relevance.

The platform uses advanced optimization algorithms to produce rollout plans for transport and core networks. These plans aim to minimize total cost of ownership while maintaining customer experience targets. Operators can balance cost and service quality without overbuilding capacity.

The TMF921 Intent Management API plays a key role. It allows the Smart CapEx platform to orchestrate tasks across legacy OSS/BSS and operational systems. This reduces integration time and helps accelerate automation adoption.

Built on scalable cloud infrastructure (such as Azure and Databricks ), the platform handles large data volumes and high-complexity computation with ease. A closed-loop architecture ensures that operational feedback constantly refines forecasts and planning decisions.

Wider application and value

This Catalyst has demonstrated how CSPs can cut CapEx and OpEx by 15–20% without compromising performance. It also shortens planning cycles, speeds up service rollout, and ensures that network investments align with both customer needs and business strategy.

The operational value is clear. AI-powered forecasting and automated optimization help CSPs use resources more efficiently, reduce capital waste, and boost network performance.

As Flavio Magalhães, Senior Manager – Digital Transformation for Telefónica, explained:

"The Smart CapEx Catalyst allows Telefónica to directly benefit from more accurate traffic forecasting and AI-driven network rollout optimization. These innovations can help us achieve up to 20% savings in Transport and Core CapEx, while enhancing customer experience and accelerating our transition towards more efficient and autonomous networks. At an industry level, Smart CapEx showcases how open standards like TM Forum’s ODA and Intent APIs can unlock faster automation and broader interoperability, reducing integration costs and future-proofing operations. For society, smarter investments mean higher digital access, lower carbon emissions, and a more sustainable digital future, fully aligned with Telefónica’s ESG commitments."

The Catalyst also helps set a standard for smarter planning, which is key for improving customer experience. Accurate forecasts support better service quality, which helps reduce churn and increase ARPU. Faster rollout decisions bring new services to market more quickly. Intent-based orchestration also simplifies integration with legacy systems, improving agility. As CSPs modernize, accelerating automation and reducing integration costs is becoming essential.

Moreover, all of this contributes to broader environmental and social objectives: efficient network planning cuts energy use and emissions, supporting global climate goals. It also means expanded digital access by enabling cost-effective infrastructure in underserved areas. This Catalyst shows that doing more with less is no longer just a strategic goal — it’s something operators can act on now. Smarter investment, clearer planning, and more efficient growth are no longer ambitions for the future, but tools ready to deploy.